Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Stock Market update

Finally, market reversed and stayed above dotted line.

Sensex closed higher by around 90 points (up 0.6%), the gains on the Nifty stood at around 20 points (0.4%). The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices however witnessed contrasting trends as while the former closed with gains of 0.2%, the latter edged lower by around 0.7%.

Prism Cement’s Net Profit up 133%

The company has announced its second quarter results. The companys Q2 net profit was up 133% at Rs 35 crore versus Rs 15 crore, YoY.However, the stock has down 9.6%!!

We recommend to buy from now to any further dips.

Invest in Quotes

"The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective."

- Warren Buffett

In 44 years of Wall Street experience and study, I have never seen dependable calculations made about common-stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment."

- Benjamin Graham

Update: Pyramid Samaira

Finally, some positive news for Pyramid Samaira!!

  • Kolkata based RBD group buys 40% stake in company. RBD buys production arm of company for Rs 40 crore
  • Pyramid to sell 40% in all its subsidiaries

See some action in this scrip today!!

Gold Price move yesterday

It is reported that Standard Bank said that gold getting a physical backstop due to festival demand from India. Bank says gold demand in India, the largest gold consuming market, is gaining momentum ahead of country's Diwali festival which falls on Oct. 17.

However, gold prices declined in Mumbai on the bullion market here today on emergency of selling by stockists at higher levels yesterday. At the same time, silver moved up on good industrial demand. Meanwhile in Tokyo, gold stayed above the USD 1,000 an ounce as the dollar remained pressured after last week's jobs data pushed the currency down broadly on concerns the US economy recovery may not be as robust as expected earlier.

Now it is rain to threat sugar supplies

News coming out that unseasonal rains, both current as well as forecast, are likely to delay the start of crushing operations by sugar mills in the 2009-10 season (October-September). That could lead to a precarious sugar supply position in November, exacerbated by the Centre’s move to release most of the stocks lying with mills during the current month itself.

The recent heavy rains in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra are reported to have submerged large cane growing areas in these States.

Result: Prices for sugar may shootup further

Elecon Engineering

India Capital Markets has recommended an accumulate rating on Elecon Engineering Company with a target price of Rs 114.

BSE & NSE to conduct Muhurat Trading on Oct 17

The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange will conduct the Muhurat Trading for the Samvat Year 2066 on Saturday, October 17.
The market will open at 18:15 hours and will close at 19:15 hours.

Monday, October 5, 2009

The most successful style of investing

…yet very few people practice it.
“The secret has been out for 50 years, ever since Ben Graham and Dave Dodd wrote Security Analysis, yet I have seen no trend toward value investing in the 35 years that I’ve practiced it.” – Warren Buffett, 1984

It has been another 25 years since Warren Buffett said this. But the statement still rings true. He is now even more famous than before. The number of books on him has multiplied and business channels now have divisions that track his activities on a daily basis. While Buffett is the most famous, there are others who are successful value investors in their own right and also receive ample media attention.

But if you looked around to see how professional money managers go about their business, you wouldn’t find too much of value investing there. The logical question then is ‘Why not?’ We believe there are certain behavioral stumbling blocks that explain why there are very few value investors despite all the media coverage the discipline receives.

Knowledge doesn’t translate to actionUnfortunately, knowledge doesn’t always translate to behavior. It is common knowledge that we should use helmets, buckle up our seat belts, avoid smoking, take medical insurance etc. but we don’t strictly follow them. It takes deliberate action on our part for us to form habits, mere knowledge is not enough. If we are not able to always do the right thing in such important matters, it is not surprising that we don’t choose the best path when it comes to investing.

One size doesn’t fit allThe general tendency of investors is to find that magic formula – a method that applies to all situations. In fact, the one time everyone asks for stock tips is when there is market euphoria. The right answer during such times is – ‘don’t buy anything’. But that’s a difficult answer to digest. On the other hand, when markets are unduly pessimistic, there are value picks everywhere. Value investing often doesn’t offer picks when we are most interested. That makes it a hard discipline to follow.

Patience in the internet age?A few months ago Bharti Airtel had come out with a campaign called the ‘impatient ones’. That seems to be an apt description of most investors. The way we have evolved, we are hard wired for short term rewards. Short term thinking comes naturally to us. It takes training and mental conditioning for us to shake off the habit and reorient our investment horizons. Value investing requires long term time horizons because there is no guarantee that out of favour stocks that value investors prefer investing in, will suddenly come back in favour.

Standing out from the crowd is difficultAs explained above, the best value picks come exactly at the time when there is pessimism all around. As Buffett himself said, “The most common cause of low prices is pessimism – some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.’ Unfortunately, that means one has to do the exact opposite of what others are doing. Buy when others are desperately selling and vice versa. Since we are hard wired to stick to the crowd, it is inherently difficult for us to do the exact opposite.

To conclude, it is not the lack of intelligence or knowledge because of which there are so few value investors. The answer lies in our behavioral pitfalls. We need to master them in order to practice value investing.

Windfall!!!

8000…10000…….12500…….15000………17000……
Sensex breaking news again. This time it doubled in record time.
It has been a windfall season for investors whole around the world, especially in India. Their portfolios boomed in many folds; it wan’t a matter what one hold. Fear given way to greed. Indexes kept breaking predictions of analysts. Is this another bubble building up again??? Marc Faber concern now is excess liquidity around the world made their way to equity markets.
Never mind!! Indian markets are relatively stronger than any other in the world. Marc Faber’s probably talked about us.
Despite this index euphoria, there are many stocks those are still under valued. In “winDFall” I am trying to search for such companies. I will try to come up with such companies with some analysis, which may be useful to your investment decisions.
You all are welcome!!!!!!